|Sala, O. E., F. S. Chapin, J. J. Armesto, E. Berlow, J. Bloomfield, R. Dirzo, E. Huber- Sanwald, L. F. Huenneke, R. B. Jackson, A. Kinzig, R. Leemans, D. M. Lodge, H. A. Mooney, M. Oesterheld, N. L. Poff, M. T. Sykes, B. H. Walker, M. Walker, and D. H. Wall. 2000. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770-1774. (Abstract)|
of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based
on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation,
and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes.
This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change,
a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major
sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably
will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition,
biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater
ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean
climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.